Events at CERGE-EI

Teresa Freitas Monteiro, Ph.D.

University of Copenhagen, Denmark

Authors: Teresa Freitas Monteiro, Jacopo Bassetto

Abstract: Migration is often temporary, and the intended length of stay in the host country is an important determinant of immigrants’ integration. This paper investigates whether shocks to safety conditions in the home country affect immigrants’ return intentions and labor market behavior. We combine administrative and survey data with precise information on violent events worldwide and exploit the quasi-random occurrence of violent events in the home country relative to the timing of interviews and job separations in Germany. We show that immigrants interviewed after a violent event in their home country are 12 percentage points more likely to wish to remain in Germany permanently. The effects are stronger if immigrants are less integrated in Germany and have close family members in their home country. Consistent with the prediction that revisions to the intended length of stay affect immigrants’ labor market behavior, we show that immigrants who enter unemployment when a violent event hits their home country increase their job search effort and find employment faster. However, the same immigrants trade immediate job security for lower earnings, less stable jobs and less productive firms.

Full Text: Immigrants’ Return Intentions and Labor Market BehaviorWhen the Home Country is Unsafe