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16:30 | Applied Micro Research Seminar
Prof. Mathias Thoenig: “Networks and Conflicts: Theory and Evidence from Fighting Groups in Africa”
University of Lausanne, Switzerland
Authors: Michael Koenig, Dominic Rohner, Mathias Thoenig, and Fabrizio Zilibotti
Abstract: This paper combines insights from network theory with standard conflict theory. First we provide a model of tactical fighting with the purpose of matching disaggregated battlefield data. We characterize how the architecture of alliances/rivalries between fighting groups drives the escalation of violence. Second the model is empirically implemented using geolocalized fine-grained data on the Congolese war that took place over the 1998-2011 for a total death toll of 3-5 millions. The model is structurally estimated and a Key Player analysis is performed in order to gauge which fighting group is the most destructive. In terms of policy implication we provide a methodology for reducing total fighting by 25% percent.
